华尔街预期美联储或将降息，幅度与速度如何？

Group 1 - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with discussions on whether a surprise 50 basis point cut will occur instead [2] - The overall market sentiment has shifted since Powell's change in stance at Jackson Hole, focusing on the speed of potential easing rather than the likelihood of it [2] - Predictions from Pantheon Macroeconomics suggest three rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, while Wedbush forecasts two cuts [2] Group 2 - The non-farm payroll report indicates weak job growth, with only 22,000 new jobs added, and private sector data showing even poorer performance [3] - A report from Daiwa Capital Markets reveals that the average monthly job growth in the private sector from June to August was only 29,000, a significant drop from 100,000 before tariffs were implemented [3] - The private sector employment diffusion index fell to 48 in August, indicating more companies are laying off employees than hiring [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces pressure to fulfill its dual mandate of promoting full employment while also controlling inflation [5] - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are expected to show rising inflation, which may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [5] - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that unless inflation data is unusually weak, a significant rate cut is unlikely [5]