欧央行连续第二次“按兵不动”，认为通胀压力得到控制

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the deposit facility rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations, while the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate remain at 2.15% and 2.40% respectively [1] - ECB officials believe that current interest rates are appropriate to address the impacts of U.S. trade tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and recent political unrest in France, with the Eurozone's economic expansion remaining strong and inflation slightly above the 2% target being under control [1] - The ECB reiterated that it has not committed to a specific interest rate path and will adopt a data-dependent approach to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance [1] Group 2 - The latest quarterly forecasts indicate that consumer prices are expected to rise by 1.7% next year, closer to the target, but will grow by 1.9% by 2027, which is lower than previous expectations [2] - The ECB adjusted its inflation forecasts, lowering the overall inflation rate to 1.9% for 2027 and core inflation to 1.8%, which has heightened market speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by year-end [3] - Economic growth projections have been revised, with GDP growth expected to be 1.2% in 2023, 1.0% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027, reflecting an increase from earlier forecasts [3] Group 3 - Following the ECB's announcement, the euro continued its downward trend, falling by 0.3% to 1.1664 USD, while the German bond market stabilized after minor declines [4] - The money market has shifted slightly towards a dovish stance, with expectations for a rate cut of approximately 7 basis points by year-end, indicating that policymakers have left room for a final rate cut [5]