Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-11 12:55Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the positive fundamentals of the optical module industry have been largely reflected in stock prices after several months of significant increases, suggesting investors take profits during high market sentiment [1] Group 1: Rating Adjustments - Morgan Stanley has made significant rating adjustments for several leading optical module stocks, with NewEase being downgraded to "Underweight," marking the largest rating change [1] - The firm warns that after a 338% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, NewEase's growth rate may significantly slow in the coming quarters, likely triggering a valuation downgrade [1] - Since April, NewEase has surged by 460%, while other companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication have seen increases of 312% and 269%, respectively [1] Group 2: Valuation Considerations - Morgan Stanley's cautious stance is primarily based on valuation considerations, noting that Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication's valuations have exceeded historical +1 standard deviation levels, indicating that positive fundamentals have at least been partially absorbed [4] - Since the beginning of 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang's forward P/E ratio has risen from 14x to 24x, while NewEase's has increased from 8x to 20x [4] - The current market consensus views NewEase as the second-largest global player with the best gross margin, limiting further upside potential [4] Group 3: Differentiated Outlook for Key Players - For the "Yizhongtian" trio (NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication), Morgan Stanley provides different investment recommendations: - NewEase: Downgraded to "Underweight" with a target price of 255 CNY, citing limited upside potential [5] - Zhongji Xuchuang: Maintained "Overweight" rating with a target price of 435 CNY, expected to achieve significant growth as a pioneer of 1.6T new products in 2026 [5] - Tianfu Communication: Downgraded to "Underweight" with an increased target price of 142 CNY, as its profit growth potential is already reflected in the current stock price [5] Group 4: Future Catalysts - Morgan Stanley views the rapid rollout of 1.6T products as a potential catalyst for the second half of 2025 and 2026 [6] - The shipment schedule for 1.6T optical modules has been negatively impacted by delays in GB300, but is expected to gradually increase with the resumption of high-end GPU deliveries [6] - According to LightCounting data, 800G will begin mass production in 2024, while 1.6T is set to start commercial production in 2025-2026, with some companies having completed the verification phase for 1.6T products [6]