美国初请失业金人数创近四年新高 强化美联储9月降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The surge in initial jobless claims in the U.S. indicates a significant slowdown in hiring and potential increases in layoffs, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, surpassing economists' median forecast of 235,000 [1]. - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims increased to 240,500, the highest since June [1]. - Texas experienced a notable increase in claims, with an unadjusted rise of 15,304, while most states saw a decline in claims [1][2]. Group 2: Labor Market Trends - The monthly employment report indicated only 22,000 new jobs added in August, continuing a trend of significant slowdown in job growth [1]. - Consumer confidence in job finding dropped to its lowest level since June 2013, reflecting uncertainty surrounding economic policies [1]. - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits remained steady at 1.94 million, indicating the current scale of individuals receiving unemployment assistance [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Implications - The jobless claims data is critical ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on September 16-17, as it reflects the labor market's condition [2]. - There is growing market speculation that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts due to increasing concerns over employment issues [2]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in August, aligning with economists' expectations, which may influence the Fed's decision-making [2].