黄奇帆再预言未来房地产，今年已基本应验，明年或大概率也是对的

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, with contrasting opinions on whether it has hit bottom or still has room for decline [1][4] Group 1: Predictions and Insights - Huang Qifan, an economist, predicted years ago that new home transaction volumes in China would decline over the next decade, eventually falling below 1 billion square meters [4] - By 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing has dropped to 970 million square meters, a significant year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [4] - The first half of 2025 shows new commercial housing sales at 458 million square meters, down 3.5% year-on-year, confirming Huang's predictions [4] Group 2: Market Challenges - The real estate sector faces two core issues: high leverage with debt ratios exceeding 80%, far above the internationally recognized healthy level of 50%, posing systemic financial risks [4][5] - There is a severe oversupply in the market, with over 4 million foreclosed properties in 2023, accounting for 35.81% of that year's commercial housing sales [5] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Huang predicts that over the next decade, average housing price growth will be lower than GDP growth, leading to a relatively stable market without significant fluctuations [5] - The national second-hand housing price index showed a month-on-month decline of 0.75% and a year-on-year drop of 7.26% as of June 2025, although the decline is not as severe as previously feared due to government support measures [8] Group 4: Government Policies - The government is implementing measures to stabilize the market, including a significant increase in funding from 300 billion yuan to 3 trillion yuan for purchasing inventory properties to convert into affordable housing [10] - The government plans to acquire inventory properties at 60-70% of their market value to meet the rental needs of approximately 200 million urban residents [10] Group 5: Recommendations for Different Buyer Segments - For first-time homebuyers, it is a good time to purchase due to lower loan rates and subsidies, but careful financial planning is essential [11] - Improvement buyers are advised to remain patient and wait for the best timing as market prices are still adjusting [12] - Investors should be cautious as the era of easy profits in real estate is over, with expected average price growth below GDP growth in the next decade [13] Group 6: Return to Housing Fundamentals - Huang's insights emphasize the importance of understanding macroeconomic fundamentals such as population structure, urbanization, and supply-demand relationships [14] - It is crucial for the public to shift from an investment mindset to a rational approach based on actual housing needs, as homes should primarily serve as places to live rather than investment vehicles [15]