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失业数据意外“完爆”CPI,美联储或踏上连续降息路
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-09-11 14:07

Group 1 - The core inflation data for August showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% before seasonal adjustment, indicating that inflation pressures remain present [1] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, reaching the highest level in nearly four years, which exceeded both the previous value of 236,000 and the expected value of 235,000, raising concerns about the labor market [1][3] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, following the release of the inflation and jobless claims data [1][3] Group 2 - Prices for fruits and vegetables increased by 1.6% month-on-month in August, while household food prices rose by 0.6%, marking the largest increase in three years, influenced by tariffs as the U.S. is now a net importer of food [2] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not have fully materialized yet, and there is a possibility of continued upward pressure on commodity inflation due to inventory depletion and price transmission [2] - The significant rise in jobless claims indicates a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focus towards employment, with some analysts suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September [3]