美银重磅报告：AI “卖水人”正在胜出！全球资金下一步可能流向哪里？

Macro Background - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and three more times by 2026, bringing rates down to around 3.25% [1] - U.S. households currently hold $19 trillion in cash, which is 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels, and this cash is being eroded by inflation and taxes, necessitating better investment options [1] - Economic indicators show a "weak recovery but not recession" trend, with soft data slightly improving and hard data remaining stable [1] AI Enablers - "AI enablers" refer to sectors that provide foundational support for the AI industry, including utilities, industrials, nuclear energy, and pipeline MLPs [4] - Over the past two years, these sectors have outperformed the Nasdaq 100, with significant absolute returns and better risk-adjusted returns in some areas [4] - However, the correlation between these "AI enablers" and tech stocks has reached new highs, indicating potential risks if AI spending slows [7][4] Sector Analysis Energy - Natural gas is experiencing a "double benefit" with increased demand from data centers and the lifting of LNG export bans, leading to a reevaluation of natural gas sector valuations [8] - The construction of LNG export facilities is accelerating, creating a second growth curve for the natural gas sector over the next five years [8] - Government policies are becoming more favorable towards the energy sector, with recent approvals for pipeline projects in the Appalachian region [9] Industrials - The industrial sector is driven by AI and manufacturing reshoring, with record order growth expected in the next 2-3 years, particularly in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and defense [10] - AI contributes approximately 20-25% to the increase in electricity demand, with the majority coming from electrification policies and the rise of electric vehicles [10] Utilities - The utility sector is projected to grow at 6-8%, driven by increased industrial electricity demand and aging infrastructure [11] - Regulated utility companies are expected to see growth rates rise from 2-4% to 6-8%, with a total annualized return potential of 10% [11] Nuclear Energy - Nuclear energy is favored for its low correlation with tech stocks and long-term growth potential, especially in the context of carbon neutrality goals [13] - The market for small modular reactors (SMRs) is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2050, meeting about 25% of global electricity demand [13] Investment Recommendations - Two core ETFs are highlighted for investors: AIRR (small-cap industrials) and PAVE (infrastructure), both offering high returns with lower volatility [16] - For nuclear energy, URA (uranium ETF) and NLR (nuclear ETF) are recommended due to their low correlation with tech stocks and strong performance metrics [17]