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五大材:供需分化累库,钢价或震荡偏弱
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-11 14:25

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while supply of the five major steel materials is decreasing and demand is increasing, inventory levels are still accumulating, leading to a potentially weak fluctuation in steel prices [1] Group 2 - The hot-rolled coil shows a strong supply and demand dynamic, with inventory shifting from an increase to a decrease [1] - Rebar supply and demand are relatively weak, with demand falling short of expectations, continuing the trend of seasonal inventory accumulation [1] - Overall inventory of the five major materials is in a seasonal accumulation range, putting pressure on the basic steel market [1] Group 3 - On a macro level, expectations for overseas interest rate cuts are increasing, and domestic "anti-involution" policy expectations remain, creating a generally optimistic macro atmosphere that supports the market and limits price declines [1] - The current fundamental pressures are suppressing steel prices, with continuous inventory accumulation and significant shrinkage in steel mill profits, leading to negative feedback pressure [1] - It is anticipated that the market will continue to exhibit a weak fluctuation pattern, with future attention needed on macro policy trends and performance of demand during peak seasons [1] Group 4 - Positive factors include the ongoing expectations for domestic anti-involution policies and relatively good demand for hot-rolled coils [1] - Negative factors encompass poor demand for rebar, excessive seasonal inventory accumulation, and significant overall inventory pressure in steel materials [1] - Rebar futures contracts face substantial warehouse pressure, and steel mill profits are poor, increasing negative feedback pressure [1]