AI龙头，高估值炫光

Core Viewpoint - The A-share AI hardware sector has experienced significant volatility since September, with dramatic shifts in market sentiment and trading patterns, reflecting a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish investors [1][4][11] Market Performance - The AI hardware sector saw four major directional shifts within nine trading days, with leading stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, Hanwha, and Industrial Fulian experiencing extreme fluctuations due to large-scale inflows and outflows of leveraged funds [1][4] - On September 4, the sector faced a sharp decline, with leading stocks dropping over 10%, as funds shifted from high-risk growth assets to lower-risk defensive assets [4][5] - Following this, on September 10, the sector rebounded strongly, driven by Oracle's impressive earnings report, which ignited bullish sentiment in the global AI computing sector [2][4] Fund Flows and Leverage - Since April, the AI hardware sector has seen substantial gains, with Zhongji Xuchuang up over 257% and Xinyisheng up over 362% year-to-date as of September 11 [5] - Leverage has played a significant role in the recent price surges, with financing balances for key stocks like Xinyisheng and Industrial Fulian doubling since August [5][10] - Despite the recent net outflows from AI funds, certain AI-themed ETFs have shown strong inflows, indicating a structural investment interest in specific segments of the AI market [10][11] Analyst Predictions and Market Sentiment - There is a growing divergence in market expectations for leading AI hardware companies, with some analysts questioning optimistic profit forecasts based on capacity expansion and high profit margins [8][9] - Despite the volatility, the fundamental support for the AI industry remains strong, with analysts emphasizing that the recent downturns are more related to market behavior than a fundamental rejection of the industry logic [6][11] - Overall, investor sentiment towards the AI sector remains optimistic, with confidence in long-term technological development and commercialization prospects, although the market is balancing between optimism and caution [11]