程强：黄金追平内在价值，货币属性凸显，降息周期下金价或持续走强

Core Insights - The relationship between gold prices and the real dollar interest rate has shown dynamic changes over the past two decades, reflecting the deep impact of the stability of the dollar's value [1] - Recent analysis indicates that the pricing logic of gold is undergoing a critical shift, where the influence of interest rates on gold prices may significantly change as gold prices approach their intrinsic value [4] Group 1: Historical Sensitivity Analysis - From 2003 to 2015, the sensitivity of gold prices to the real dollar interest rate was -404.8, with an explanatory power of 0.75, indicating a strong negative correlation [4] - This relationship weakened from 2016 to 2019, with sensitivity dropping to -151.3 and explanatory power falling to 0.24 [4] - Since 2020, a counterintuitive positive correlation has emerged, with sensitivity at 224.1, suggesting that the stability of the dollar's value plays a dominant role in gold pricing [4] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy since 2020 has led to a gradual recovery of gold's intrinsic value, with gold prices continuing to rise during the rate hike cycle [4] - As of September 8, the futures market indicates a 90.1% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 68.6% chance of three rate cuts by the end of the year [5] - Historical data shows that gold prices tend to perform well during rate cut periods, providing dual support for gold prices in the current environment [5] Group 3: Potential Risks - The market should remain cautious of potential risks, including unexpected increases in global gold production and significant shifts in U.S. monetary policy, which could disrupt the fragile balance of current gold pricing [8] - Understanding the dynamic evolution of gold pricing mechanisms is strategically more valuable for investors than merely focusing on short-term price fluctuations [8]