Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-11 16:01Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the "mini LABUBU" by Pop Mart has generated significant attention but has not positively impacted the secondary market, leading to a sharp decline in prices for LABUBU series products [1][3]. Group 1: Product Performance and Market Reaction - The average transaction price of the third generation LABUBU products has dropped by 80% from its peak over the last 90 days, with the new "mini LABUBU" experiencing a 30% price decline for its best-selling L model [3]. - Pop Mart's stock price fell over 19.5% within two weeks, from HKD 339.8 to HKD 273.4, reflecting market concerns [3]. - The company's supply chain revolution has resulted in a tenfold increase in plush toy production capacity, reaching 30 million units per month by August 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Business Model Shift - Pop Mart has shifted its business model from maintaining product scarcity to ensuring consumer rights, explicitly stating a focus on selling "good products" rather than "investment products" [4]. - The large-scale replenishment strategy has disrupted the speculative behavior of resellers, leading to panic selling in the secondary market [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenues of RMB 13.75 billion from self-owned products, accounting for 99.1% of total revenue, with significant contributions from various IPs [5]. - The financial data indicates a heavy reliance on specific IPs, with the THE MONSTERS series contributing RMB 4.81 billion, nearly one-third of total revenue [6]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The expansion of the supply chain has led to a decline in prices for other IP products, with significant drops observed in various series, such as a 35% decrease for the "Good Dream Meteorological Bureau" series [5]. - The price restructuring, while temporarily suppressing stock prices, has created a more favorable purchasing environment for genuine consumers [5].