Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose to 263K, exceeding the consensus of 240K, marking the highest level since fall 2021, indicating potential economic weakness [13] - Headline CPI increased by 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%, while Core CPI met expectations at 0.3%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [13] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates, aligning with market consensus, indicating a stable monetary policy environment in Europe [5] - The Federal Reserve is under political pressure to consider a 50 basis points rate cut despite the recent inflation and jobless claims data, with the FOMC meeting scheduled for next week [13] Market Trends - Positive money flows were observed in major tech stocks including Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla, while Apple showed neutral flows [7] - The stock market remains elevated above support levels, but there are signs of losing internal momentum as indicated by RSI divergence [13] Commodity Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its oil supply growth estimate down to 2.7 million barrels per day from a prior estimate of 5.2 million barrels per day, leading to selling pressure in the oil market [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain cash reserves to capitalize on new opportunities and adjust hedge levels accordingly, particularly for high beta stocks [14] - A traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy may need reevaluation, focusing on high-quality bonds with shorter durations due to unfavorable risk-reward dynamics for long-duration bonds [15]
Hotter Inflation And Higher Jobless Claims Raise Stagflation Risk; Mexico Opportunity - SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY)