房价连续跌了四年，涨回来只用了三天，房价拐点真的到了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant turnaround after four years of decline, with high-end residential prices in first-tier cities increasing by 15% overnight, contrasting sharply with previous years of price drops [2] Market Overview - The real estate market has faced a prolonged downturn since late 2021, with a cumulative inventory of over 700 million square meters of unsold properties, requiring an estimated seven years to digest at the current pace [2] - The second-hand housing market has seen a dramatic increase in listings, with cities like Chongqing and Wuhan exceeding 200,000 listings, and a conservative estimate of 120 million vacant homes nationwide [2] Contributing Factors - The slowdown in urbanization has led to a significant reduction in the annual increase of urban population from 20 million to 10 million, and a notable decrease of 60 million in the key home-buying age group (25-44 years) since 2015 [3] - Social trends indicate a "low desire" environment, with marriage registrations expected to fall below 5 million and a birth rate of 1.09, lower than Japan [3] Policy Impact - A series of unprecedented "rescue" policies aimed at revitalizing the market were introduced in September 2025, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and increased loan limits [3] - First-tier cities have adopted a more nuanced approach to policy adjustments, implementing differentiated strategies based on geographic zones [3] Market Reactions - Initial effects of policy stimulus are evident, with new home purchases in policy-initiated areas like Beijing's Tongzhou and Shanghai's outer ring increasing by over 50%, and some properties selling out on the first day of listing [4] - However, long-term challenges remain, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities facing high inventory and population outflows, which may delay market recovery despite policy relaxations [4] Future Outlook - A cautious optimism is suggested for the future of the real estate market, with a clear "policy bottom" emerging and a gradual formation of a "market bottom" [8] - The market is expected to exhibit significant differentiation, with core urban areas likely to recover faster than non-core regions lacking industrial support and population inflow [8] - For genuine homebuyers, current conditions may present a favorable entry point due to substantial policy incentives and lower loan rates, while investors should exercise caution as speculative opportunities have diminished [8]