“医院过剩”大潮来临，大批医院将转型

Core Insights - The number of hospital beds in China has significantly increased from 6.182 million at the end of 2013 to 10.174 million by 2023, marking a 64% growth over ten years [1] - There is a mismatch in the distribution and structure of hospital beds, leading to an oversupply in some areas while others face shortages [1][2] - The Chinese government is encouraging the transformation of secondary and lower-level medical institutions into rehabilitation and nursing hospitals to address the surplus of hospital beds [3][4] Group 1: Hospital Bed Surplus - The rapid increase in hospital beds has led to a situation where many hospitals, especially in rural areas, have a significant number of vacant beds [1] - The National Health Commission has issued guidelines to support the transformation of certain hospitals to better align with community health needs [3][4] - The trend of hospital closures and bankruptcies is rising, with 1,158 bankruptcy-related cases involving hospitals reported in 2024 [5][6] Group 2: Financial Pressures on Hospitals - Hospitals are facing high operational costs, particularly secondary hospitals that require expensive equipment and qualified personnel [11] - The profitability of hospitals has declined due to reforms that have eliminated traditional revenue sources such as drug markups and government funding [13][14] - The average loss for non-public medical institutions reached 553 million per institution in 2021, indicating widespread financial distress [11] Group 3: Demographic and Technological Changes - A declining birth rate and an aging population are altering the demand for hospital services, leading to closures of maternity wards in several hospitals [16][17] - Advances in medical technology are reducing the average length of hospital stays, further contributing to the surplus of hospital beds [18][19] Group 4: Future Directions - The government is promoting the concept of "medical-nursing integration" to adapt to the aging population and improve healthcare services [21][22] - The transition to medical-nursing integration is expected to lead to a significant number of hospitals shifting their focus to elder care and rehabilitation services [22][24] - The oversupply of hospital beds is viewed as a necessary phase for industry upgrade, where inefficient hospitals will be eliminated, allowing for better resource allocation [24]