Core Insights - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1] Inflation Analysis - Core goods prices, driven by automobiles, saw a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, marking the highest growth since May 2023, indicating a shift from deflation to inflation in the core goods sector for 2023-2024 [1] - The impact of tariffs on prices outside of automobiles appears limited, suggesting that companies face challenges in passing on tariff costs [1] - Service inflation has essentially stagnated, with notable rebounds in previously weak airline and hotel prices during the first half of the year [1] Economic Implications - Overall, the inflation data is not mild; however, due to ongoing weakness in employment data, the Federal Reserve may need to lower interest rates in response [1] - In the context of supply contraction, the stimulative effects of rate cuts are likely to manifest more as price increases rather than output expansion, indicating that the scope for rate cuts may be constrained and highlighting the risk of "stagflation" in the economy [1]
中金:美国通胀未退 经济“类滞胀”风险仍值得关注