Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data from the U.S. presents a dual signal, with rising inflation pressures and a significant increase in unemployment claims, impacting the gold market dynamics positively despite short-term volatility [2][3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inflation is rising, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increasing by 2.9% year-on-year, the highest in seven months, and a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3% [2]. - Employment data shows a notable decline, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest in three years, significantly above the expected 235,000, and non-farm payrolls only increasing by 22,000 in August, far below the anticipated 75,000 [3]. - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut, driven by weak employment data and a surprising drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3][4]. - The low interest rate environment enhances the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, despite recent buyer fatigue [4]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a downward trend followed by a rebound, maintaining a volatile pattern. The price has broken below the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential shift in support levels [8]. - Key support levels to watch include 3613 and 3585, while resistance levels are identified at 3651 and 3674 [9]. - The four-hour chart indicates a slowdown in upward momentum, with the market potentially entering a corrective phase, necessitating close monitoring of price movements [8][9]. Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming financial data to watch includes Germany's August CPI, UK's GDP, and U.S. consumer confidence index, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [11].
黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.9.12）
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-12 00:40