29年来首次！黄金或超美债，全球央行储备格局巨变

Core Insights - A significant shift in global central bank reserve composition has occurred, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996, marking gold's ascendance as a primary reserve asset [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 7.402 million ounces (approximately 2302.28 tons) by the end of August, with a reserve value of $253.843 billion, representing a historical high of 7.64% of total foreign reserves [1][2] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2019 [1][2] Central Bank Behavior - Nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, reflecting a strong preference for gold despite rising prices and a 15-year trend of net purchases [2][4] - The geopolitical landscape and financial uncertainties are driving central banks to view gold as a strategic asset, with concerns over interest rates, inflation, and instability prompting increased gold accumulation [2][3] Factors Influencing Gold Accumulation - The deepening cracks in the dollar-centric international monetary system, highlighted by the freezing of Russian reserves, have accelerated gold accumulation among central banks [4][5] - The high level of U.S. debt, projected to reach 124.3% of GDP by the end of 2024, undermines the credibility of the dollar, leading other nations to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold [4][5] - The restructuring of global order and rising political risks in the U.S. are prompting central banks, especially in emerging markets, to increase gold holdings as a hedge against potential structural risks in the dollar system [5] Structural Changes in Reserve Strategies - A notable shift in central bank strategies is occurring, with 59% opting to store gold domestically, an increase of 18 percentage points from 2024 [5] - 73% of central banks anticipate a decline in the dollar's share of reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [5]