Gold - The U.S. judge has blocked the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, while President Trump has quickly appealed the decision. The Fed nominee Milan has passed the Senate committee test and is expected to be confirmed by the full Senate next Monday [2] - The U.S. August CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.9%, meeting market expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 rose to 263,000, reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that U.S. inflation is relatively controllable, and the job market is softening, leading to optimistic rate cut expectations. With the Fed's rate cut expectations and doubts about its independence, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain weak, which is favorable for gold prices [2] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows that the market has maintained a relatively high adjustment level in recent trading days, with short-term caution against pullback risks. The 4-hour chart indicates a focus on testing the support level at $3,610 [2] Oil - Recent data from the API and EIA show an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending September 5, with total crude and refined oil inventories reaching the largest increase since 2023, indicating the end of the U.S. oil consumption peak season and entering a phase of inventory accumulation [4] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.495 million barrels per day, maintaining a slight growth trend for about two months [4] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that U.S. crude oil production will remain stable in the near term and that exports to Europe will increase, which may negatively impact oil prices. OPEC's production increase will slow down in October, but the overall direction of increased supply will not change, posing a significant obstacle to rising oil prices [5] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows a significant decline in the previous trading day, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating further downside risks for oil prices. The 4-hour chart shows oil prices returning below the 20-day moving average, with short-term bearish sentiment. Key resistance is at $63, while support is at $60 [5] Copper - The daily chart indicates that after a previous pullback, the market found support at the 20-day moving average, and in recent trading days, the market has continued to rebound and closed with bullish candles, suggesting further upward opportunities. Short-term focus is on the support level at $4.56 [7] Nikkei 225 - The daily chart shows a continuation of strong performance, with the previous trading day closing higher with bullish candles, indicating potential for further upward movement. The 4-hour chart shows the market moving higher along the 20-day moving average, with short-term focus on the support level at 44,180 [8]
百利好早盘分析：初请数据低迷 大幅降息可期
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-12 01:49