沪铝 下方支撑转强

Core Viewpoint - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stabilizing while demand remains resilient, driven by the transition from off-peak to peak season and the continued high demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [1][2]. Supply Side Stability - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with seasonal production cuts diminishing due to improved power supply from renewable energy projects [1]. - Although there are expansion plans in overseas markets like Indonesia, challenges such as inadequate power infrastructure slow down the release of new capacity, resulting in limited overall supply growth [1]. Demand Resilience - The market is transitioning from a low-demand season to a peak season, with recovery in downstream processing rates and increasing orders in sectors like photovoltaics and automotive [2]. - Despite previous concerns about weakening export demand, aluminum product exports show strong resilience, with a shift from initial processing products to deep-processing products [2]. Low Inventory Support - The ongoing decline in alumina prices is unlikely to significantly drag down aluminum prices due to strong support from bauxite prices and expected reductions in bauxite export volumes as the rainy season approaches [3]. - Both domestic and overseas aluminum ingot inventories are at historically low levels, which, combined with the upcoming peak season, is expected to lead to further inventory depletion and support a bullish price outlook for aluminum [3].