3 6 Ke·2025-09-12 02:57Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the resale prices of Pop Mart's LABUBU products has led to a negative sentiment in the capital market, impacting the company's stock price despite some analysts maintaining a "buy" rating on the stock [2][9]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Pop Mart's stock price fell over 19.5% from a peak of 339.8 HKD per share on August 26 to 273.4 HKD on September 11 [2]. - The decline in LABUBU's resale prices has created a "reverse sentiment" in the capital market, although some institutions still see potential in Pop Mart [2][9]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that the stock price fluctuations are more influenced by technical and emotional factors rather than a deterioration in the company's fundamentals [2]. Group 2: Product and Supply Chain Dynamics - Pop Mart has significantly increased its plush toy production capacity, reaching approximately 30 million units in August, which is over ten times the capacity from the previous year [3]. - The launch of new products like the mini LABUBU saw rapid sales, with around 710,000 orders placed within 30 minutes of its release [4]. - The company's strategy to increase supply and reduce speculation has led to a significant drop in resale prices, with LABUBU's third-generation products seeing an 80% decrease from peak prices [1][4]. Group 3: Brand and IP Management - Pop Mart aims to shift its focus from being perceived as a "financial product" to selling quality products, indicating a strategic change in its business model [2][5]. - The company has been actively working to eliminate middlemen, such as scalpers, to regain pricing power and ensure fair pricing for consumers [5][6]. - LABUBU's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 4.81 billion CNY, accounting for nearly one-third of Pop Mart's total revenue, highlighting the brand's significant impact on the company's financial performance [7]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The long-term success of LABUBU will depend on its ability to maintain consumer interest and storytelling capabilities, as well as the introduction of new hit IPs [9]. - The dilution of premium IP scarcity due to increased supply may affect the overall pricing strategy in the secondary market, impacting consumer confidence [8][9]. - Pop Mart's expansion into the film industry with projects like the animated series "LABUBU and Friends" indicates a strategy to enhance brand engagement and longevity [9].