8月通胀巩固美联储下周降息预期，幅度大概率为25个基点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the slight rise in inflation in August strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates next week, although the pace is expected to be cautious [1][3][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking the highest increase since February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, both slightly above expectations [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, remaining stable and in line with expectations [1][5] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 92.7%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 7.3% [3] - Analysts suggest that the August inflation data supports a 25 basis point cut but does not provide justification for a larger cut [3][5] - The core inflation rate remains stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, despite rising core commodity prices [5][6] Group 3 - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest since June 2023, and non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations [6][8] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest level since November 2021, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve [6][8] - Some analysts believe the rise in jobless claims may reflect seasonal fluctuations rather than a significant decline in labor demand [7][8]