Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-12 03:04Core Viewpoint - Shunwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on China Shipbuilding Defense (600685) with a "Buy" rating, citing benefits from the global shipbuilding cycle and capacity release, projecting net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 11, and 7, and a current market value/order book ratio of 0.42, significantly below the 10-year average of 0.53, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery [1] Industry Overview - The shipbuilding industry continues to experience a tight supply-demand balance, driven by the need for replacing aging vessels, with the replacement progress just over half, and new environmental policies potentially extending the replacement cycle. The number of active shipyards has significantly decreased, with current capacity at only 74% of the previous peak, indicating that even a recovery to 85% by 2030 will not meet future delivery demands, thus supporting high ship prices [2] Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of the year, negative factors affecting the Chinese shipbuilding market have changed. Following investigations by the U.S. Trade Representative's Office under Section 301, shipowners adopted a wait-and-see approach, leading to a significant drop in transaction volumes and declining ship prices. However, with the release of the initial Section 301 proposal in February 2025, new ship orders from China surpassed those from South Korea in March, and the second version of the proposal in April showed notable easing, suggesting a potential recovery in order volumes and ship prices [3] Company Performance - The production plan for 2028 shows a significant increase compared to 2027, with Clarkson data indicating a 58% and 34% increase in CGT terms for Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Shipyard International, respectively. In monetary terms, the increases are 61% and 41%. Most current orders were signed during the price upcycle that began in 2021, and with steel procurement costs declining, the company is positioned for substantial performance elasticity due to the combination of capacity release and margin improvement [4] Competitive Landscape - China Shipbuilding Group is focused on addressing issues of intra-industry competition, having committed to resolving competition between Huangpu Wenchong and China Shipbuilding within five years, with future progress being closely monitored [5]