Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) saw a significant intraday increase of over 6%, closing up 5.74% at HKD 26.52, with a trading volume of HKD 565 million [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - On September 11, London base metals experienced a broad increase, with LME aluminum rising by 2.06% to USD 2,679.00 per ton [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a strong market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the conclusion of its meeting on September 17, with an increased probability for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The anticipation of rate cuts is contributing to a weaker dollar, which is favorable for aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - There is a gradual recovery in downstream demand, coupled with market expectations for a peak season, which is likely to create a positive feedback loop for aluminum prices [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan highlights that China Hongqiao has significant integrated advantages as an electrolytic aluminum producer, with a leading position in overseas bauxite resource allocation and high self-sufficiency in alumina and electricity [1] - The company benefits from a low dependency on imported bauxite amid rising domestic reliance, along with low coal prices enhancing its cost advantages [1] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in the company's equity production capacity is expected to bolster profits [1] - With domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity nearing its ceiling, a new supply-demand dynamic is expected to drive aluminum prices upward [1] - Minsheng Securities asserts that with the Fed's clear rate cut in September and aluminum capacity reaching its limits, long-term value for the company is promising [1]
中国宏桥盘中涨超6% 降息预期持续走强利多铝价 公司权益产能提升将增厚利润