250个基点,这国央行宣布降息
CitiCiti(US:C) Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-09-12 03:43

Core Views - A wave of interest rate cuts is emerging globally, with central banks in multiple countries, including Peru and Turkey, announcing significant reductions in their benchmark rates, indicating a shift towards more accommodative monetary policies [1][6][10]. Group 1: Peru's Central Bank Actions - The Central Bank of Peru announced a 25 basis point cut in its benchmark interest rate, lowering it from 4.50% to 4.25%, aligning with the expectations of 8 out of 15 economists surveyed [3]. - The decision was influenced by a decrease in inflation pressure, with the overall inflation rate dropping from 1.7% in July to 1.1% in August, although this decline is considered temporary [3][4]. - The Central Bank expects the year-end inflation rate to approach the midpoint of its target range, with core inflation projected to remain around 2% [4]. Group 2: Turkey's Central Bank Actions - The Central Bank of Turkey reduced its benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations of a 200 basis point cut [6][7]. - Despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, domestic demand remains weak, and inflationary pressures persist due to rising food prices and service costs [6][8]. - The Central Bank aims to stabilize inflation, with a medium-term target of reducing it to 5%, following a peak of 85.5% in October 2022 [6][8]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the U.S. August CPI report, market consensus indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a rate cut, with expectations of a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points over the next five FOMC meetings [10][11]. - The August CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from 2.7% in the previous month, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year [10][11]. - Analysts from Citigroup view the inflation report as encouraging for the Fed, suggesting that inflation risks are diminishing and the focus is shifting towards supporting economic growth [11].