【UNFX数评】CPI数据巩固降息预期：通胀降温趋势确立，政策转向在即

Group 1: Inflation Data Insights - The overall inflation rate has reached a significant milestone with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, marking the first time in 2023 that it has fallen into the "2 range," indicating a decisive victory in the fight against inflation [1][3] - Core CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, but its downward trajectory is becoming increasingly clear, suggesting that the true real-time core inflation level is much lower than reported [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The CPI report enhances the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, opening the door for potential rate cuts as early as next week [1][2] - The focus of the Federal Reserve is shifting from combating inflation to maintaining economic growth, as the risks to economic growth are now greater than those posed by inflation [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - The August CPI report is viewed as a positive turning point, confirming the diminishing threat of inflation and pushing the Federal Reserve towards a policy shift [2][3] - The stock market is expected to see a significant boost in risk appetite, particularly for interest-sensitive sectors like technology, as the anticipation of rate cuts creates a window for valuation recovery [2][3] - The bond market is likely to experience a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, especially for the 2-year Treasury, as investor enthusiasm for bonds is rekindled [2][3] - The dollar index may face downward pressure as the interest rate differential narrows with rising expectations of rate cuts [2][3]