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广发证券首席经济学家郭磊:中国制造与科创崛起是大势所趋
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2025-09-12 04:24

Core Insights - China's economic development is supported by three significant advantages: stock population dividend, delayed gratification dividend, and engineer dividend [2][3][4] - The rise of Chinese manufacturing and technological innovation is an inevitable trend, with a focus on integrating technological and industrial innovation during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][6] Group 1: Economic Advantages - The stock population dividend is characterized by a large base of 1.4 billion people, which supports substantial industries and business models [3][4] - The delayed gratification dividend reflects the high labor participation and savings rates in China, leading to a rapid capital formation speed [3][4] - The engineer dividend indicates China's fastest technological innovation speed globally [3][4] Group 2: Technological Innovation - China is emerging as a significant global research engine, maintaining the highest quality research output and leading in PCT international patent applications for six consecutive years [4][5] - The 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to emphasize the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with key industries such as artificial intelligence, marine economy, and biomedicine projected to grow significantly [5][6] Group 3: Capital Market Trends - The rapid rise of technological innovation in China is influencing the capital market, with A-share market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, a 15.6% increase from the end of 2024 [7][8] - The current capital market conditions resemble those of previous high-growth periods, driven by macroeconomic recovery and favorable liquidity conditions [7][8] - The central government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, which is expected to support high-quality development in technology and industry [8][9]