美国公布“完美”通胀数据！特朗普和鲍威尔都放心了，降息倒计时

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI data for August, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligns with Wall Street expectations and serves as a significant indicator for the Federal Reserve's decision on potential interest rate cuts [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The CPI data release has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq reaching a new historical high [1]. - The last data obstacle for interest rate cuts has been removed, with a 93.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September and an 86.8% probability for a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [2]. - The combination of the CPI data and recent non-farm employment figures provides strong support for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [4][6]. Group 2: Political Influence - President Trump has been vocal in pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, even publicly criticizing Chairman Powell [4][6]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny as political pressures mount, particularly from the Trump administration [6]. Group 3: Future Risks - There are concerns about the delayed impact of tariffs on prices, which could lead to inflationary pressures in the fourth quarter, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making [8]. - The market is beginning to question the authenticity of short-term data, which may create deeper economic governance issues in the long run [9]. - The decision-making process may hinge on whether to prioritize maintaining data credibility or to adopt unconventional methods to sustain a favorable economic outlook [11].