金荣中国：现货黄金延续强势，目前暂反弹至3646美元附近表现强劲

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong performance, rebounding to around $3,646 after a slight decline to $3,632.49, following a record high of $3,674.36 earlier in the week, marking a 38% increase year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and U.S. economic data expectations [1] - The U.S. bond and stock markets have reacted positively, reinforcing the expectation of interest rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to a five-month low of 3.994% and closing at 4.015%, while the two-year yield fell to 3.531% [1] - The market anticipates an average inflation rate of 2.4% over the next decade, slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, providing a favorable environment for gold as an inflation hedge [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 2.9% year-over-year, the highest in seven months, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [3] - The CPI's month-over-month increase of 0.4% exceeded expectations, and the core CPI remained at a high of 0.3%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures despite signs of economic slowdown [3] - The significant rise in jobless claims and the lower-than-expected non-farm payroll increase of 22,000 jobs highlight a cooling economic momentum, which has overshadowed inflation concerns and supported gold prices [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The consensus in the market indicates a 100% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates and positive outlook on the Eurozone economy has weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [4] - Overall, the gold market demonstrates resilience amid economic data and policy expectations, with soft labor market data, a weaker dollar, and optimistic responses from the bond and stock markets providing solid support for gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a small entity close, indicating strength, with a potential continuation of upward momentum if the price breaks above $3,660 [7] - Short-term movements suggest a recovery from a high of $3,675, with indications of stability and potential upward movement in the current trading session [7] - Traders are advised to monitor key levels around $3,638/$3,630 for potential long positions, with targets set at $3,660 and $3,690 [7]