Group 1 - The U.S. labor market's condition has become a focal point for the Federal Reserve and global markets, with recent soft employment data leading to a significant shift in market assessments [1] - The probability of a "soft landing" scenario remains the most likely outcome in the medium term, despite an increase in the likelihood of a "hard landing" to 20% [1] - The U.S. economy is described as being in a "muddling through" state, with growth not strong but still positive, and the likelihood of stabilization outweighing continued downturns [1] Group 2 - In Europe, the economic environment is improving as tariff uncertainties decrease, and the European Central Bank does not anticipate further rate cuts [2] - The outlook for U.K. bonds is neutral, with the Bank of England's recent hawkish stance and positive growth prospects for the U.K. economy suggesting limited strong performance for U.K. government bonds in the short term [2]
施罗德投资：美国经济下行风险升温 但“软着陆”仍为主线 债市前景分化
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-12 06:09