“美联储传声筒”：数据“打架”让美联储左右为难

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, returning to the highest level since the beginning of the year, significantly up from 2.7% in July and 2.3% in April, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, suggesting a potential shift towards more layoffs [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices reached new historical highs as investors bet on multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the weak August non-farm report reinforcing expectations for a September rate cut [2] - Price pressures from tariffs are showing a mixed impact, with certain categories like automobiles and clothing seeing accelerated price increases, while others like tires and furniture have seen reduced price hikes [2] - Companies are extending the cost-sharing period to avoid sudden price spikes, with retailers like Walmart and Target implementing gradual price adjustments related to tariffs [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma in determining whether tariff-driven inflation is temporary or persistent, with recent comments suggesting that a weakening labor market may lead to inflation being viewed as a one-time shock [6] - Market expectations indicate a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with two additional cuts by year-end, totaling 75 basis points [6] - Ongoing inflation combined with a weak job market is straining consumer purchasing power, potentially complicating the Fed's decision-making between stimulating the economy and controlling inflation [7]