美联储减息倒计时？金价高歌猛进，高盛扛旗力挺明年4000！

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a significant bull market driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, a weakening dollar, central bank purchases, and increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1][6]. Market Performance - As of the latest update, Hunan Silver hit the daily limit, Xiaocheng Technology surged over 5%, and Hunan Gold rose over 3%, with other gold stocks like Zhongjin Gold and Sichuan Gold also following suit [2]. - Spot gold has surpassed $3,650 per ounce, increasing by 0.48% in a single day, while spot silver has reached $42 per ounce, marking the highest level since September 2011 [3]. Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 39%, and silver has increased nearly 45% [4]. Historical Context - Gold prices have set over 30 nominal records this year and have surpassed the inflation-adjusted historical peak from 1980 [6]. - The primary drivers behind this surge include anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weak dollar, central bank buying, and heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties [6]. Federal Reserve Insights - The latest U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with August CPI year-on-year at 2.9%, matching expectations, while initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since October 2021 [7]. - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with an 80.2% probability of a 50 basis point cut in October [10]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since Q3 2020, global central banks have net purchased gold for 14 consecutive quarters, reflecting a strategic shift in reserve asset structures from U.S. dollar bonds to physical assets like gold [15]. - According to Crescat Capital, the share of gold in central bank reserves has surpassed U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant global rebalancing [15]. Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs has projected that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce next year, with a long-term price forecast for 2029 and beyond raised to $3,300 per ounce from a previous estimate of $2,850 [17]. - The global commodities team at Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold, suggesting that prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with extreme scenarios potentially approaching $5,000 [18]. Silver Market Dynamics - Silver analyst Peter Krauth emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's shift to a dovish stance is a crucial mid-term driver for precious metals [19]. - Historical data indicates that during past rate-cut cycles, silver typically bottoms out mid-cycle and surges post-rate cuts, with average gains of 332% over 12-18 months [20].