美联储降息大门敞开，亚洲股市集体创历史新高，现货黄金维持涨势

Core Viewpoint - The combination of a moderate inflation report and signs of a cooling labor market has led to significant gains on Wall Street, with speculation that the Federal Reserve will implement its first rate cut of the year next week [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy - The recent economic data indicates a shift in the Federal Reserve's focus towards maximizing employment, as evidenced by a significant rise in initial jobless claims, overshadowing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report [2]. - Analysts believe that while inflation data has not completely cooled, it is insufficient to prevent the Federal Reserve from addressing the weak employment outlook [2][6]. - The futures market shows a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with a 90% chance of two additional cuts later this year [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Global Impact - Asian stock markets have followed the upward trend of U.S. markets, with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI indices reaching historical highs, driven by optimism surrounding AI-related earnings growth [1][7]. - The Nikkei index rose by 3.7% this week, while the KOSPI index also saw significant gains [1][7]. - The anticipated easing from the Federal Reserve is influencing global capital markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices also experiencing gains [5][7]. Group 3: Divergence in Central Bank Policies - In contrast to the Federal Reserve's anticipated easing, the European Central Bank has maintained a cautious stance, keeping interest rates unchanged and indicating that its policy is in a "good position" [9]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank in December are currently low, at about 20% [9].