万腾外汇：美国上周申请失业金人数飙升至26.3万，创四年来新高

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing clear signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, and significantly exceeding market expectations of 235,000 [2] - The total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits remains at 1.94 million, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [2] - The August non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, with a three-month average of 116,000, marking the lowest since the pandemic recovery began in 2020 [2] Group 2 - Major companies in the manufacturing and information services sectors, such as Boeing, General Motors, and Intel, have announced layoffs, while Tesla has reportedly paused hiring on certain production lines [3] - The NFIB employment plans index has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, reflecting employers' lack of confidence in demand prospects [3] - Economic uncertainty stemming from tax and tariff policies, along with the upcoming presidential election, is causing companies to be more cautious in their capital spending and hiring decisions [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's internal stance is shifting, with officials discussing the need for preemptive action if the job market unexpectedly weakens [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with over 70% probability of a cumulative 100 basis points cut by the end of the year [4] - Despite the concerning job data, some analysts caution against overreacting to single-week figures, noting that the four-week average for initial claims remains below recession thresholds [4] Group 4 - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on September 18 is being closely watched, as a rate cut would mark a shift in the current tightening cycle and provide support for the struggling labor market [5] - The ability to reverse the hiring downturn will depend on companies' confidence in future demand and the resolution of uncertainties in fiscal and trade policies [5]