魔飞光电：预计2028-2030年，全球AR眼镜年出货量将达数千万

Core Insights - The AI/AR glasses market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected shipment of 262,000 units in the first half of 2025 in China, representing a 73% year-on-year increase, and an expected total shipment of 900,000 units for the year, a 133% increase [2] - The market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in three years, driven by advancements in technology and cost reductions [2] Industry Trends - Light guide AR glasses are anticipated to become the dominant form due to their lightweight and integrated design, gradually replacing heavier models [3] - The BirdBath technology is positioned for the budget segment, while light guide technology is gaining traction among manufacturers, spurred by AI advancements [3] - Major suppliers like GoerTek and Lens Technology are increasing investments in the supply chain to support the growth of AR glasses [3] Market Opportunities - The global new display industry is projected to grow by 17% in 2024, reaching $219.8 billion, with China accounting for approximately half of this market at around $108 billion [3] - Morphotonics, a Dutch company specializing in large-area nanoimprint technology, has established a subsidiary in Suzhou, China, to enhance its local presence and focus on cost reduction, capacity increase, and rapid response [3] Technological Challenges - Current wafer-level technology faces challenges such as high costs and low production capacity, while roll-to-roll nanoimprint technology struggles with precision and yield [4] - The roll-to-plate nanoimprint technology combines advantages of both methods, offering higher production capacity while meeting precision requirements [4] Production Capacity - Morphotonics has commercialized products like the Portis series for small-scale production and the Aurora series for large-scale manufacturing, with plans to introduce a new device, 'Cypris', capable of producing 6 million light guides annually [4] - A recent production run achieved a yield of 93%, with a target of maintaining yields between 90%-95% for large-scale production [4] Future Projections - The global annual shipment of AR smart glasses is expected to reach tens of millions by 2028 to 2030, contingent on reducing production costs [5] - Initial price increases of 20%-40% may be acceptable, but long-term market acceptance will require further price reductions [5]