欧央行管委Patsalides：当前利率已足以实现2%通胀目标 无需进一步降息

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) does not need to further lower interest rates to achieve stable inflation levels, according to Christodoulos Patsalides, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1] - The ECB is currently in a favorable position, with inflation risks balanced, and the next adjustment of the benchmark interest rate is more likely to be an increase [1][3] - The ECB has maintained the deposit rate at 2% for two consecutive meetings, and there is a general consensus among investors and analysts that no further rate cuts will occur following eight reductions since June 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The Eurozone economy faces risks from U.S. trade policies established during the Trump administration, which could lead to further measures from the U.S. in response to EU actions against Google [2] - Trade tensions create dual risks for inflation: demand suppression due to risk aversion could lower inflation, while supply chain disruptions could push prices up [2] - Patsalides believes that inflation risks are balanced, with the ECB's forecast indicating a consumer price index (CPI) increase of 1.7% next year and a slight decrease in inflation expectations for 2027 compared to previous forecasts [3][6] Group 3 - The ECB's forecast suggests that inflation will temporarily deviate from the 2% target in 2026 but is expected to rebound to 1.9% by 2027, indicating no long-term concerns about inflation falling below target levels [6] - Patsalides attributes the adjustments in forecast values to technical assumptions like exchange rates rather than fundamental changes, advocating for a stable policy approach without immediate action [7]