Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, predicts an inevitable crisis for the US and Western economies, comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the stagflation crisis of the 1970s [1] - The market has priced in an expected interest rate cut of approximately 70 basis points, with potential cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [1] Group 2 - Non-farm payroll data excludes agricultural employment due to the unique structure of the US agricultural sector, where large land ownership and mechanization have led to a minimal agricultural workforce [2][4] - In 2024, agriculture is projected to account for only 0.85%-1.1% of the US GDP, with an estimated value added of about $248.3 billion, highlighting the limited role of agriculture in the overall economy [4] Group 3 - Changes in non-farm payroll data can significantly impact economic cycles, with increases leading to a positive feedback loop of employment, income, consumption, and production, while decreases can trigger a negative cycle [5] - The recent adjustments to non-farm payroll data have raised concerns, with August showing only a 22,000 increase in jobs, far below the expected 75,000, and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [7] Group 4 - The non-farm payroll data is derived from two independent surveys: the establishment survey, which may double-count jobs, and the household survey, which counts individuals only once [8] - Recent data volatility is attributed to the prevalence of multiple job holdings and low response rates to surveys, which have fallen below 60%, affecting the accuracy of employment data [9][11] Group 5 - The ongoing downward revisions of non-farm payroll data indicate insufficient economic vitality, suggesting the need for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy and create jobs [11]
美国经济要崩？非农数据爆冷，美联储降息已进入倒计时！
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-12 07:58