Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is drafting an executive order to impose strict restrictions on Chinese pharmaceuticals, particularly experimental drugs, aiming to curb the rapid development of China's biotech industry, which may negatively impact the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain and patient access to innovative therapies [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the news, stocks of various pharmaceutical companies, including BeiGene (ONC.US), Zai Lab (ZLAB.US), Legend Biotech (LEGN.US), Pfizer (PFE.US), AstraZeneca (AZN.US), and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US), experienced varying degrees of decline [1]. - BeiGene's stock saw a significant drop of up to 12% during intraday trading on September 10, but rebounded by 6.93% by the close on September 11, indicating a quick recovery in market sentiment [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The proposed executive order includes three main components: threatening to cut off supply channels for Chinese-developed drugs, imposing stricter scrutiny on U.S. pharmaceutical companies purchasing drugs from Chinese firms, and requiring the FDA to conduct more rigorous reviews and charge higher regulatory fees [4]. - The policy may inadvertently harm U.S. multinational pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) as nearly 200 drugs, including 69 blockbuster drugs with annual sales exceeding $1 billion, are set to lose patent protection, leading to a potential $115 billion patent cliff by 2035 [5]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the proposed restrictions may backfire, as they could limit U.S. biopharmaceutical companies' access to Chinese assets and innovation, which are crucial for maintaining competitive pricing and addressing patent expirations [7][9]. - Major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer, Merck, and AstraZeneca have voiced support for Chinese biotech firms, recognizing their role in providing cost-effective solutions and rapid delivery capabilities [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent market volatility, the innovative drug sector remains a favored investment area, with reports indicating that the Hong Kong innovative drug sector turned profitable for the first time in the first half of the year [9]. - Analysts from various firms, including Southwest Securities and CITIC Securities, expect continued growth in the A-share and Hong Kong pharmaceutical sectors, driven by innovation and internationalization [9][10]. - The potential executive order's feasibility is questioned, with some analysts believing it may not be implemented due to existing U.S. pharmaceutical policies [10][11].
“一纸政令”难阻产业趋势，多家机构仍看好创新药发展