3 6 Ke·2025-09-12 08:43Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is in the final stages of negotiations to sell its China business, with potential buyers including Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China, with a valuation around $5 billion (approximately 35.8 billion RMB) [1][2][5] Group 1: Sale Process and Valuation - The sale process has reached the final negotiation stage, with a decision expected by the end of October [1] - The valuation of Starbucks China is estimated to be between $5 billion to $6 billion (approximately 35.8 billion to 43 billion RMB), based on expected EBITDA multiples of 10 times its projected EBITDA of $400 million to $500 million for 2025 [2][5] - The competition for the acquisition includes several prominent investment firms, indicating a high level of interest and potential for a significant transaction in the consumer goods sector [1][2][3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Starbucks China has seen a decline in market share, dropping from 34% in 2019 to 14% in the previous year, largely due to increased competition from local brands like Luckin Coffee [4][5] - Luckin Coffee has surpassed Starbucks in sales in China, becoming the largest coffee chain in the market, which has pressured Starbucks to reconsider its business strategy [5] - The changing consumer preferences and economic environment have led to increased price sensitivity, challenging Starbucks' premium pricing strategy [5] Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Starbucks is exploring partnerships with local investors to enhance supply chain efficiency, local operations, and cost control to better compete with domestic brands [5][6] - The company has previously indicated a reluctance to fully divest its China operations, but recent statements suggest a shift towards considering strategic partnerships [6] - The potential buyers have significant experience in managing and growing consumer brands, which could provide valuable synergies for Starbucks China [3][9][10] Group 4: Market Trends - The global consumer M&A market is experiencing a resurgence, with a reported 30% increase in transaction value, particularly in Asia, where M&A activity has grown by 45% year-on-year [7] - The competitive landscape for acquisitions is intensifying, with various firms actively pursuing opportunities in the Chinese market, reflecting a broader trend of international investment interest [7][8]