1 Super Stock Down More Than 20% to Buy Hand Over Fist, According to Wall Street

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's positive aspects, particularly strong sales from its diabetes drug Mounjaro and expectations for its obesity drug Zepbound, outweigh the negatives despite a significant share price decline over the past 14 months [1][2]. Company Performance - Eli Lilly became the largest healthcare company globally by market cap but has seen its share price drop over 20% since its peak in August 2025 [2]. - Recent quarterly updates have been disappointing, with lowered earnings outlooks and lower-than-expected sales for Mounjaro and Zepbound [4]. Market Competition - Increasing competition in the obesity drug market has raised investor concerns, particularly following Roche's positive clinical results for its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist CT-996 [3]. Clinical Trials - Results from a pivotal phase 3 study for orforglipron showed a placebo-adjusted weight loss of 11.5%, which did not meet analysts' expectations, and a treatment discontinuation rate of 10.3% due to adverse events [5]. Regulatory Environment - Potential tariffs on pharmaceutical imports proposed by the Trump administration could negatively impact Eli Lilly and the broader industry, as noted by the company's CEO [6]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite challenges, Wall Street remains optimistic, with 20 out of 28 analysts rating Lilly as a "buy" or "strong buy," and no "sell" recommendations in the latest survey [8]. - The average 12-month price target suggests an upside potential of around 19%, with some analysts projecting increases of up to 59% [9]. Future Outlook - Mounjaro and Zepbound are expected to have significant sales growth potential, particularly Mounjaro, which shows promise in delivering cardiovascular benefits [10]. - There is confidence in orforglipron's commercial success despite concerns from clinical results, as there is demand for effective oral medications among overweight individuals [11]. - Recent insider buying by executives indicates a high level of confidence in the company's future [12].