Core Viewpoint - UBS significantly raises its gold price forecast, citing expectations of Federal Reserve easing, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks as factors that indicate the gold bull market is far from over [1] Price Forecast - UBS has increased its gold price target for the end of 2025 by $300 to $3,800 per ounce and raised its mid-2026 forecast by $200 to $3,900 per ounce [1] - The gold market has shown strong upward momentum, reaching a historical high of $3,673.95 per ounce recently, with a year-to-date increase of over 39% [1] Investment Demand - UBS's analysis indicates a rapid increase in investment demand for gold, predicting that total holdings in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will exceed 3,900 tons by the end of 2025, nearing the historical record of 3,915 tons set in October 2020 [2] Macro Environment - The core logic behind UBS's bullish outlook on gold is based on macroeconomic conditions, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate-cutting cycle, which would weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of gold priced in dollars [3] - Geopolitical risks and the policy divergence between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are key factors boosting gold's safe-haven value [3] - The report highlights President Trump's preference for low interest rates as a supportive factor for gold prices, as gold traditionally performs well in low-rate environments [3] Central Bank Demand - Global central bank demand for gold is expected to remain strong, with UBS forecasting purchases to be between 900 to 950 tons this year, slightly below last year's record of over 1,000 tons, indicating continued confidence in gold as a reserve asset [3]
瑞银上调黄金目标价：年底或涨至3800美元，ETF持仓逼近历史纪录
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-12 09:05