SCSF(SH:600779) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-12 09:24Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing, with a significant decline in production and profits in the first half of 2025 [1][2] - A majority of listed liquor companies are experiencing revenue declines, indicating a shift in the industry's growth logic from "volume reduction, price increase" to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [2][4] Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, while sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% [1] - The industry's profit was 87.687 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.93% [1] - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory levels, with over half facing price inversion issues, leading to an average inventory turnover period of 900 days, up 10% from the previous year [1] Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [2] - The market share is increasingly concentrated among top companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue in 2024, up 13 percentage points from five years ago [2] - The median revenue growth rate for large liquor companies (over 10 billion yuan) was 2.36%, while smaller companies (under 10 billion yuan) saw a median decline of 16.89% [2] Inventory Trends - The total inventory of 19 listed liquor companies reached 168.325 billion yuan, an increase of 12% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth [4] - 79% of liquor companies reported inventory growth, with three companies experiencing inventory growth rates exceeding 20% [4] - Notably, the top four liquor companies, except for Wuliangye, showed double-digit inventory growth, with Kweichow Moutai's inventory increasing by 15.08% [5] Price Trends - The wholesale price of top liquor brands has been declining, with Moutai's price dropping from 2,660 yuan to 1,820 yuan between August 2024 and August 2025 [3] - The price of other notable brands, such as the eight-generation Puwu and Guojiao 1573, also experienced significant declines [3]