Juno markets：美元需要全球冲击才能复苏？

Group 1 - The political crises in France and Japan have weakened the Euro and Yen, which are major competitors to the US Dollar, allowing the Dollar to temporarily escape the influence of monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve's potential for further easing of monetary policy is increasing, following a significant revision of March employment data, which showed a decrease of 911,000 jobs from previous expectations, and an unexpected decline in the Producer Price Index in August [1] Group 2 - The recent court ruling allowing Federal Reserve member Lisa Cook to attend the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting is contributing to the strengthening of the Dollar [3] - The Dollar index has remained in a narrow range of 97-98 for the past five weeks, indicating a shift from a six-month downtrend to a sideways movement, which is seen as a bearish signal [3] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may implement 4-5 rate cuts, while other central banks are not expected to follow suit, leading to a belief that the Dollar will resume its downward trend at the start of the new fiscal year [3] Group 3 - During periods of global economic expansion, the Dollar faces pressure due to increased demand for high-risk, high-yield assets outside of US Treasuries [3] - Historical crises, such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2010-2011 European sovereign debt crisis, have led to a stronger Dollar as investors flock to it during severe crises [4] - Such crises can benefit the US government by legitimizing rate cuts and simultaneously lowering borrowing costs through increased borrowing demand [4]