南财快评｜杨志勇：中国财政政策仍有较大发力空间

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to stabilize and promote economic growth, with a focus on enhancing the adaptability of fiscal policies to economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal macro-control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has four key characteristics: increased strength, richer tools, more precise implementation, and greater flexibility in timing [3]. - The fiscal policy has shifted from being merely proactive to being more actively engaged, which is crucial for supporting stable and healthy economic development [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Cycle Management - The goal of macroeconomic regulation is to smooth out economic cycles, preventing significant fluctuations that could waste resources and impact social welfare [2]. - Cross-cycle regulation is increasingly important for finding new growth drivers for medium- to long-term development, especially in the context of China's evolving economic landscape [2]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - Effective fiscal macro-control requires the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, which enhances the overall effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [4]. - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds is an example of fiscal and monetary policy collaboration, expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Space and Debt Management - China's fiscal policy still has significant room for maneuver, with the fiscal deficit rate increasing from 2.7% to 4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," allowing for greater fiscal policy space [4]. - The government debt ratio in China is projected to be 68.7% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% and the G7 average of 123.2%, indicating potential for further fiscal expansion [4]. Group 5: Long-term Economic Outlook - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains intact, supported by a vast market, which is expected to lead to increased fiscal revenues and enhanced fiscal strength [5]. - The ability to utilize fiscal policy effectively is improving, with a growing toolbox for macro-control, indicating a more forward-looking and targeted approach to fiscal policy [5][6].