多空分歧白热化！焦煤期货宽幅震荡，空头紧盯需求疲软，多头押注政策 “反内卷”｜大宗风云

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures are influenced by a combination of supply easing and weak demand, leading to uncertainty in short-term market trends [2][3][10]. Market Trends - As of September 12, the main coking coal futures contract (2601) closed at 1144.5 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.88% [2]. - The market sentiment has slightly improved due to a "de-involution" mood, as highlighted in a report by the National Development and Reform Commission [2]. - Coking coal prices have shown a significant increase since early July, with prices rising from approximately 930 CNY/ton to a peak of 1400 CNY/ton before settling around 1270 CNY/ton, marking a 25.8% increase from the beginning of the third quarter [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply is expected to remain stable, with a slight recovery in demand as coking enterprises and blast furnaces resume operations [3][6]. - The average profit per ton of coke varies by region, with Shanxi's first-grade coke averaging 47 CNY/ton and Inner Mongolia's second-grade coke showing a loss of 18 CNY/ton [5]. - Steel mills' operating rates have increased, with 83.83% of blast furnaces in operation, indicating a rise in demand for coking coal [7]. Import and Export Factors - Coking coal imports from Mongolia and Russia are significant, with July imports reaching 962.3 million tons, a 53 million ton increase from June [8]. - The Mongolian government is implementing measures to enhance coal exports to China, which may support supply stability [8]. Price Fluctuations and Market Sentiment - The market is currently experiencing a balance between supply and demand, with steel mill profits remaining stable, which is beneficial for raw material markets [9]. - However, the coking coal market is facing downward pressure due to falling coke prices, with a recent drop of 50-55 CNY/ton [5][10]. - Analysts suggest that the coking coal market will likely continue to experience wide fluctuations, with limited upward or downward movement expected in the short term [11].