Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market has experienced price fluctuations, with domestic spot prices falling to around 70,000 yuan per ton due to the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine and a decline in lithium carbonate futures prices [1] - In August, the Jiangxiawo lithium mine was temporarily shut down, leading to a significant decrease in lithium mica and its derived lithium carbonate production. However, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased substantially, filling the supply gap [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production reached 85,000 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 39% and a month-on-month increase of 5%, driven by improved production enthusiasm from spodumene lithium extraction companies [3] Group 2 - Following the confirmation of the Jiangxiawo mine's shutdown on August 11, lithium carbonate futures contracts surged, leading to a significant increase in related stocks. Conversely, the announcement of the mine's resumption on September 10 caused a sharp decline in futures and stock prices, indicating a return to a "supply surplus" market condition [4] - Despite the short-term decline in lithium prices, the average price of lithium carbonate in the third quarter is significantly higher than in the second quarter, with an average price of 72,947.92 yuan per ton compared to 65,237.17 yuan per ton in the second quarter, reflecting an 11.82% increase [4] - Companies with stable production costs, such as salt lake enterprises, are expected to see a rebound in profitability in the third quarter due to rising lithium carbonate prices, although the impact on profitability may be limited due to their cost advantages [5] Group 3 - Spodumene lithium extraction companies, with production costs around 70,000 yuan per ton, are likely to achieve a turnaround in profitability for their lithium salt business in the third quarter, as the average price of lithium carbonate rises to 73,000 yuan per ton [6] - Some raw material self-sufficient spodumene lithium extraction companies still face significant operational pressure due to relatively low lithium prices, and the upcoming low-cost production capacity may further increase market supply pressure [6] - Salt Lake companies are planning to start trial production of a 40,000-ton-per-year lithium salt project by the end of September, which, combined with the potential resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine, raises questions about whether spot prices can maintain above 70,000 yuan per ton [6]
三季度碳酸锂均价环比涨近12% 锂盐企业盈利有望阶段性触底回升