美联储“变脸”在即：滞胀担忧消退，降息节奏或加快！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next week due to a prolonged weak job market and easing inflation concerns, potentially ending months of debate over stagflation risks [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Market - Recent data shows the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, with revised figures indicating actual job losses in June [1]. - The number of new jobs added in the year leading up to March was nearly 1 million less than initially reported, indicating a significant downward revision in employment growth [1]. - Job vacancies have decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of over 7% and a 27.1% drop compared to 2023, signaling a loss of momentum in U.S. job growth [9][12]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Policy - The latest consumer price index (CPI) showed a higher increase than the previous month, but a surge in initial jobless claims indicates a cooling job market [2]. - Analysts predict a shift in the Federal Reserve's focus from inflation prevention to job market protection, potentially leading to a faster and more stable rate-cutting pace [2]. - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions have shifted towards a more cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction rather than a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [3][9]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is not expected to make a strong commitment to continuous rate cuts, as current macroeconomic conditions do not necessitate it [9]. - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices has been deemed less significant than previously feared, allowing policymakers to adopt a more relaxed stance on inflation [5][9]. - The Federal Reserve's quarterly economic projections will be updated to reflect new forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and policy rates, which will be released alongside the upcoming policy statement [2].