3 6 Ke·2025-09-12 13:19Core Viewpoint - The bidding process for Starbucks' China business has narrowed down to four private equity firms: Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China, with a valuation of approximately $5 billion based on projected EBITDA of $400 to $500 million for 2025 [1][8]. Group 1: Bidding Firms - Carlyle Group is a notable contender due to its previous investment experience in McDonald's China, where it held a 28% stake and achieved a net gain of approximately $1.2 billion from a $1.8 billion sale [2][8]. - Boyu Capital has been a key player in mergers and acquisitions, gaining recognition through high-profile deals such as Alibaba's buyback of Yahoo shares [3][4]. - EQT, while less known in China, has a strong background in the Asian market and has successfully exited investments totaling $15.1 billion in the first half of the year, primarily through mergers rather than IPOs [5][6]. - Sequoia China has been active in mergers, recently acquiring a majority stake in Marshall Group for €1.1 billion (approximately 8.4 billion RMB) and has a significant fundraising capability, completing a 18 billion RMB fundraising in July 2024 [6][7]. Group 2: Starbucks' Sale Process - Starbucks has been in the spotlight for a year regarding its potential sale, initially evaluating strategic options including partial stake sales while maintaining significant ownership [8][9]. - The valuation of Starbucks' China business has fluctuated, with estimates ranging from $5 billion to as high as $10 billion, reflecting market uncertainties regarding its growth trajectory amid competition from local brands [9][10]. - Starbucks has indicated it will not sell the entire business, retaining core assets and a stake, which may influence the bidding dynamics by reducing the control premium typically sought by buyers [10][11].