贝莱德解读债市恐慌：收益率飙升主因非财政危机，而是中性利率预期重构

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock indicates that the rise in global government bond yields reflects expectations of sustained high interest rates rather than concerns over an impending fiscal crisis [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Long-term sovereign bond yields have surged significantly this year across major economies, leading to the steepest yield curves in years [1] - The widening gap between 5-year and 30-year bond yields suggests a shift in market dynamics [3] - The current neutral interest rate is believed to be above historical levels, influenced by loose fiscal policies and high investment spending, particularly in the AI sector [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns over fiscal situations, investor demand remains strong, as evidenced by new bond issues receiving billions in subscriptions [3] - France's recent bond auction demonstrated robust demand, even amid political challenges, with its 10-year bond yield premium over German bonds decreasing from a recent high [3][4] - Market movements indicate that investors expect France to eventually resolve its budgetary issues [4] Group 3: Long-term Bond Outlook - The re-pricing of long-term bonds is occurring across major government bond markets, with the pressure on long-term bonds likely to persist [4] - The company expresses limited willingness to allocate to long-term bonds in regions including the UK [4]