高盛：美股AI数据中心赛道爆发！2029 年这两大赛道规模超6000亿

Core Insights - The AI server market is projected to reach $581 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 38%, driven by demand from hyperscale companies and Tier 2 cloud service providers [2] - The AI data center switch market is expected to grow to $26 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 36%, significantly up from previous estimates [2] - Traditional servers and switches are experiencing negative growth, contrasting sharply with the AI sector [2] AI Server Market Dynamics - The growth of AI servers is primarily concentrated in Tier 2 cloud service providers, which are expected to see a CAGR of 66%, reaching approximately $239 billion by 2029 [2] - Enterprise customers are projected to grow at a CAGR of 36%, reaching around $43 billion by 2029 [2] - Hyperscale companies will grow at a CAGR of 28%, with a projected market size of $298 billion by 2029 [2] Market Share Changes - Dell has seen a significant increase in market share, rising 22 percentage points to 46% in the Tier 2 cloud service provider market [3] - In the hyperscale enterprise market, white-box servers have slightly increased their share to 29%, while NVIDIA's share has decreased by 3 percentage points to 6% [3] - In the enterprise market, Dell's share increased by 13 percentage points to 30%, while NVIDIA's share fell by 6 percentage points to 16% [3] AI Data Center Switches - Ethernet technology dominates the switch market, with backend Ethernet switches expected to grow at a CAGR of 50%, reaching $14 billion by 2029 [3] - Frontend Ethernet switches are projected to grow at a CAGR of 46%, reaching $10 billion by 2029 [3] - InfiniBand switches are expected to decline, with a CAGR of -1%, reaching only $2 billion by 2029 [3] Customer Demand Insights - Enterprise customers show the highest demand for AI switches, with a projected CAGR of 64% [5] - Tier 2 cloud service providers are expected to grow at a CAGR of 55% [5] - Hyperscale companies are projected to grow at a CAGR of 41% [5] Company Ratings and Outlook - Arista Networks (ANET) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $155, benefiting from strong revenue growth from major cloud giants [6] - Dell Technologies (DELL) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $150, supported by trends in AI server demand and IT spending recovery [6] - Cisco Systems (CSCO) is rated "Neutral" with a target price of $37, facing market share challenges but with a solid backlog [6] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is rated "Neutral" with a target price of $25, with concerns over profitability in its server and hybrid cloud segments [6] - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is rated "Sell" with a target price of $27, facing challenges from commoditization in the AI server market [6]