未来十年超半数人口或将集中在这几个城市群，房价走势令人担忧

Core Insights - By 2025, China's urbanization rate is projected to reach 65.7%, a significant increase of 5.3 percentage points since 2020, reflecting a massive population shift towards major cities [1] - The Chinese government aims to cultivate five world-class city clusters, which contribute 56.8% of the national GDP and attract 43.5% of the population, despite occupying only 10.2% of the country's land area [1] Group 1: Population Movement Trends - In 2024, over 12 million people migrated to the five major city clusters, with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area leading with a net inflow of 3.8 million [2] - The Greater Bay Area's resident population reached 86 million by mid-2025, increasing by 11 million over five years, with 42.3% of new residents being highly educated [4] - The Yangtze River Delta city cluster is characterized by a "1 5 9" urban structure, with Shanghai at its core, indicating a deepening integration and collaboration among cities [6] Group 2: Economic and Industrial Dynamics - The Chengdu-Chongqing city cluster is experiencing rapid growth, with both cities' GDP growth rates exceeding 7% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from improved transportation links [6] - The Central Yangtze River city cluster, centered around Wuhan, has seen a 30% reduction in cross-province commuting times, with high-tech industries contributing 25.7% to its GDP [6][9] Group 3: Real Estate Market Observations - Despite a nationwide downturn in the real estate market, core cities within the five city clusters have shown resilience, with new residential prices rising over 3% in the first half of 2025, and Shenzhen experiencing a 5.7% increase [9] - The disparity in housing prices is widening, with core cities' price increases being 2.3 times that of surrounding areas, indicating a strong correlation between population influx and real estate demand [9] Group 4: Policy Responses and Future Outlook - The government is implementing measures to manage real estate markets, including increasing land supply in major cities and promoting balanced urban development [11] - Experts suggest enhancing transportation integration within urban clusters and accelerating the development of affordable housing to address population concentration challenges [11] - The ongoing population migration is seen as both an opportunity for economic growth and a challenge for equitable resource distribution, necessitating strategic planning [11]